| 摘要 | 本文采用中国统一地震目录, 依据陈立军地震地热说理论与工作方法, 对天山地区壳下地震活动的平面与三维分布图像、时序进程、最近两年内的异常状态、历史地震活动背景以及地震柱构造大环境的影响等项目研究, 并参照作者对全球壳内强震活动案例研究的经验, 认为南天山地震子柱构造的地震地热异常现象可以确认无误, 因此推测该构造影响区未来1~2年内可能会在阿克苏地区发生M6. 5~7的壳内强震活动, 值得高度警惕, 密切关注。这个强震预测意见已经得到2024年1月23日新疆阿克苏7.1级地震的验证, 值得肯定。 |
| Abstract | The paper adopts the Unified Earthquake Catalog of China and according to the Chen Lijun's Seismo-geothermcs and its working method, and studies the planar and three-dimensional distribution images, sequential processes, abnormal states in the last two years, the background of historical seismic activity and the influence of seismic cone tectonic environment in the Tianshan Mountains. In this paper, with reference to the author's experience in the global case study of intracrustal strong seismic activity, it is believed that the seismic geothermal anomaly of the Nantianshan seismic sub-seismic cone tectonic can be confirmed without error, so it is speculated that the intracrustal strong seismic activity of M6. 5-7 may occur in Aksu area in the next 1-2 years in the tectonic influence area, which is worthy of high vigilance and close attention. This strong earthquake prediction opinion has been verified by the M7. 1 earthquake in Aksu, Xinjiang on January 23, 2024, which deserves affirmation. |
| DOI | 10.48014/cesr.20240329002 |
| 文章类型 | 综述性论文 |
| 收稿日期 | 2024-04-03 |
| 接收日期 | 2024-04-09 |
| 出版日期 | 2024-06-28 |
| 关键词 | 地震地热说, 地震柱构造, 壳内强震, 强震预测, 新疆阿克苏 |
| Keywords | Seismic-geothermics, seismic cone tectonic, intracrustal strong earthquake, earthquake prediction, Aksu, Xinjiang |
| 作者 | 陈立军 |
| Author | CHEN Lijun |
| 所在单位 | 湖南省地震局, 长沙 410007 |
| Company | Earthquake Administration of Hunan Province, Changsha 410007, China |
| 浏览量 | 171 |
| 下载量 | 115 |
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| 引用本文 | 陈立军. 中国地震预测研究的曙光———以天山地区地震活动为例[J]. 中国地球科学评论, 2024, 3(2): 52-66. |
| Citation | CHEN Lijun. The dawn of earthquake prediction research in China: A case study of seismic activity in the Tianshan Mountains[J]. Chinese Earth Sciences Review, 2024, 3(2): 52-66. |