藏北鲁热沟冰湖演化规律及溃决危险性评价

Evolution Patterns and Outburst Risk Evaluation of Luregou Glacial Lake in Northern Tibet

青藏高原受全球气候变暖的影响, 冰湖溃决事有发生。这类冰湖溃决具有规模大、突发性强、危害大、防治困难等特点。通过对易贡藏布上游鲁热沟流域内29处冰湖1976年、1988年、 2001年和2013年四个期次的遥感解译与现场调查, 深入分析了冰湖发育特征、分布规律、湖面面积变化、类型。选取了冰湖面积变化、终碛堤、冰崩与冰滑坡、冰湖类型等因子初步构建了冰湖溃决危险性快速评价方法。运用该方法对鲁热沟流域29处冰湖溃决危险性进行了评价, 评价结果显示危险性大、中、小分别为5处、6处、18处。并对2013年7月5日已发生溃决的然则日阿错冰湖的溃决机制和灾害效应进行了深入分析。

Affected by global warming, glacial lake outburst events occur frequently on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Glacial lake outburst is characterized by large scale, sudden occurrence, danger and difficulty in prevention and control. Based on the remote sensing interpretation and field investigation of 29 glacial lakes in Luregou basin in the upper reaches of Yigongzangbu basin, four periods in 1976, 1988, 2001 and 2013, the development characteristics, distribution patterns and types of changes in glacial lakes were deeply analyzed. Factors such as changes in glacial lake area, terminal moraine dam, ice avalanche and ice landslides, and glacial lake types were selected to initially construct a rapid rating method for glacial lake outburst risk. Using this method, 29 glacial lake outburst risks were evaluated in Luregou Basin, and the evaluation results showed that the risks were large, medium and small in 5, 6 and 18 places respectively. Furthermore, the outburst mechanism and disaster effect of Ranzeriacuo glacial lake on July 5, 2013 were analyzed in detail.