2000—2020年湖南省耕地转换的时空特征及驱动机制

周昕; ZHOU Xin; 杨绪红; YANG Xuhong; 王宋辉; WANG Songhui; 李霞; LI Xia; 刘畅; LIU Chang; 邹斌杨; ZOU Binyang

doi:10.48014/cgsr.20250529002

2000—2020年湖南省耕地转换的时空特征及驱动机制

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Cultivated Land Conversion in Hunan Province from 2000 to 2020

中国地理科学评论 2025年第3卷第4期页码[51-67] 下载全文[7.7MB]

摘要

从地类转换视角探究耕地时空变化, 对识别耕地“占优补劣”现实特征、优化耕地布局和提升耕地保护政策实效具有重要现实意义。基于2000年、2010年和2020年三期土地利用数据, 本研究综合运用土地利用转移矩阵、耕地生态位模型与参数最优地理探测器等方法, 系统解析了湖南省县域尺度耕地转入转出的时空演变特征、适宜性变化及驱动机制。结果表明: ①时空特征上, 湖南省耕地转换规模持续扩大且进程明显加速, 空间稳定性下降。前期 (2000—2010年) 变化相对和缓且空间分散; 后期 (2010—2020年) 耕地流失态势加剧, 转出规模普遍超过转入, 空间集聚性增强, 尤以湘西地区最为严重。②质量效应上, 耕地转换过程伴随显著的“占优补劣”现象, 新垦耕地的适宜性持续低于被占用的耕地, 导致全省耕地平均质量呈现总体下降趋势。③驱动机制上, 耕地转换由社会经济、区位与自然因素多元驱动, 且各因子间的交互作用解释力显著高于单因子。其中, 社会经济因素 (以农业生产总值和农业机械总动力为主) 是驱动耕地转换格局演变的核心力量。湖南省近二十年的耕地面临质与量的双重压力, 未来的耕地保护政策亟须向“数量、质量、生态”并重转变, 并通过提升农业效益、推进农业现代化等方式来推动耕地保护, 以期为区域土地可持续利用与粮食安全战略提供更精准的决策支持。

Abstract

Exploring the spatio-temporal variations in cultivated land from the perspective of land-use conversion is crucial for identifying the reality of “replacing high-quality land with inferior land, ” optimizing cultivated land allocation, and enhancing the effectiveness of related protection policies. Based on land-use datasets from 2000, 2010, and 2020, this study integrates the land-use transfer matrix, cultivated land ecological niche model, and optimal-parameter geographical detector to systematically examine the spatio-temporal evolution, suitability changes, and driving mechanisms of cultivated land gain and loss at the county scale in Hunan Province. The results show that: 1) Spatio-temporal characteristics: The scale of cultivated land conversion expanded continuously with an accelerating trend, accompanied by declining spatial stability. During 2000—2010, changes were relatively moderate and spatially dispersed, whereas during 2010— 2020, cultivated land loss intensified, with conversion-out consistently exceeding conversion-in and exhibiting stronger spatial agglomeration—most prominently in western Hunan. 2) Quality effects: Cultivated land conversion was marked by a pronounced “replacing premium land with inferior land” phenomenon. Newly reclaimed cultivated land consistently had lower suitability than the land being converted out, leading to an overall declining trend in average cultivated land quality. 3) Driving mechanisms: The conversion of cultivated land was jointly driven by socio-economic, locational, and natural factors, with interaction effects between paired factors showing significantly higher explanatory power than any single factor. Among them, socio-economic factors—particularly gross agricultural output value and total agricultural machinery power—were the dominant forces shaping cultivated land conversion patterns. Over the past two decades, cultivated land in Hunan Province has faced dual pressures on both quantity and quality. Therefore, future cultivated land protection policies must shift toward a coordinated approach emphasizing “quantity-quality-ecology synergy. ” Improving agricultural profitability and advancing agricultural modernization are essential pathways to strengthening cultivated land protection, thereby providing more precise decision support for regional sustainable land use and national food security strategies.

DOI

10.48014/cgsr.20250529002

文章类型

研究性论文

收稿日期

2025-05-29

接收日期

2025-11-20

出版日期

2025-12-28

关键词

耕地转换, 时空格局, 耕地适宜性, 影响因素, 参数最优地理探测器

Keywords

Cultivated land conversion, spatio-temporal pattern, cultivated land suitability, influencing factors, optimal parameter geographical detector

作者

周昕¹, 杨绪红^1,*, 王宋辉^2,3, 李霞⁴, 刘畅¹, 邹斌杨¹

Author

ZHOU Xin¹, YANG Xuhong^1,*, WANG Songhui^2,3, LI Xia⁴, LIU Chang¹, ZOU Binyang¹

所在单位

1. 湖南农业大学资源学院, 长沙 410128
2. 湖南工程职业技术学院, 长沙 410151
3. 实景三维建设与应用技术湖南省工程研究中心, 长沙 410119
4. 湖南省国土资源规划院, 长沙 410119

Company

1. College of Resources, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China
2. Hunan Vocational College of Engineering, Changsha 410151, China
3. Hunan Engineering Research Center of 3D Real-Scene Construction and Application Technology, Changsha 410119, China
4. Hunan Institute of Land and Resources Planning, Changsha 410119, China

浏览量

下载量

基金项目

湖南省自然科学基金项目(2024JJ6249);湖南省自然资源科技计划项目(湘自资科20240123GH)

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引用本文

周昕, 杨绪红, 王宋辉, 等. 2000—2020年湖南省耕地转换的时空特征及驱动机制[J]. 中国地理科学评论, 2025, 3(4): 51-67.

Citation

ZHOU Xin, YANG Xuhong, WANG Songhui, et al. Spatio-temporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of cultivated land conversion in Hunan Province from 2000 to 2020[J]. Chinese Geography Sciences Review, 2025, 3(4): 51-67.