中国沿海城市群人口分布特征及驱动因素研究

Research on the Population Distribution Characteristics and Driving Factors of China' s Coastal Urban Agglomeration

沿海城市群是中国区域经济增长的引擎和国际贸易的枢纽, 研究其人口分布问题对合理布局生产力具有重要意义。文章采用偏移-份额法、人口分布结构指数、人口地理集中度、面板数据计量等研究手段, 研究2010—2019年我国沿海城市群人口分布格局特征及其驱动因素。结果表明: (1) 我国沿海城市群人口密度等级分布呈橄榄球状, 各城市群人口差异较大; (2) 高度城镇化和经济发展成熟的城市群更能吸引人口集聚, 人口分布相对更均衡; (3) 城市发育程度、城市经济发展水平、公共产品差异、就业保障、医疗水平和产品价格差异是人口分布的主要驱动因素, 其中, 城市发育程度、城市经济发展水平、公共产品差异、就业保障、医疗水平对人口分布指数有着显著的促进作用, 产品价格差异对人口分布指数产生负向驱动; (4) 空间差异分析发现, 我国沿海城市群人口分布的驱动因素异质性较为明显, 城市群的个体差异较大。

The coastal urban agglomeration is the engine of China' s regional economic growth and the hub of international trade and studying its population distribution is of great significance for the rational layout of productivity. The article uses research methods such as offset share method, population distribution structure index, population geographic concentration, and panel data measurement to study the characteristics and driving factors of population distribution patterns in China' s coastal urban agglomerations from 2010 to 2019. The results show that: (1) the population density distribution of coastal urban agglomerations in China is rugby shaped, with significant differences in population among different urban agglomerations; (2) Highly urbanized and economically developed urban agglomerations are more likely to attract population agglomeration, and the population distribution is relatively more balanced; (3) The degree of urban development, level of urban economic development, differences in public goods, employment security, medical level, and product price differences are the main driving factors for population distribution. Among them, the degree of urban development, level of urban economic development, differences in public goods, employment security, and medical level have a significant promoting effect on the population distribution index, while product price differences have a negative driving effect on the population distribution index; (4) The spatial difference analysis found that the driving factors of population distribution in China' s coastal urban agglomerations are quite heterogeneous, with significant individual differences in urban agglomerations.