基于双螺旋法的智库现代化研究范式构建

Constructing A Research Paradigm for Think Tank Modernization Based on the Double Helix Method

现代化研究分为理论现代化研究和智库现代化研究。理论现代化研究已形成相对成熟的方法体系, 但智库现代化研究范式仍呈现经验性、零散性和随机性特点, 难以应对现代化研究综合性、复杂性等挑战, 亟需新范式。基于此, 本研究以双螺旋法理论为基本底层逻辑, 运用过程融合法 (DIIS) 和逻辑层次法 (MIPS) , 系统架构智库现代化研究体系。通过梳理理论现代化与智库现代化研究进展及相互关系, 剖析传统智库研究范式在现代化研究中的局限。研究发现, 双螺旋法从过程和逻辑两个维度为智库现代化研究提供了新路径。DIIS过程融合法经大数据建构、信息揭示、综合研判、解决方案提出四个环节引导过程性研究; MIPS逻辑层次法基于“机理分析—影响分析—政策分析—形成方案”逻辑框架为决策服务提供全链条政策分析。双螺旋法为大规模智库现代化研究组织方式树立新法则, 为中国式现代化智库研究在组织、逻辑等方面的规范性和科学性提供了综合性方法和范式路径, 但未来还需进一步提升应对快速响应和不确定性问题的能力。

Modernization research can generally be divided into theoretical modernization research and think tank modernization research. While theoretical modernization research has developed a relatively mature methodological system, the paradigm of think tank modernization research is still characterized by empirical, fragmented, and random features, lacking a systematic research framework making it difficult to cope with the challenges of comprehensiveness and complexity in modernization research, and urgently requiring a new paradigm. Based on the foundational logic of the Double Helix Method theory, this study employs the DIIS and MIPS research methodologies to systematically construct a think tank modernization research framework. Research has found that the double helix method provides a new path for modernizing think tanks from both process and logic dimensions. The DIIS process fusion method guides process research through four stages: big data construction, information disclosure, comprehensive analysis, and solution proposal; The MIPS logical hierarchy process provides full chain policy analysis for decision-making services based on the logical framework of “mechanism analysis—impact analysis—policy analysis—formation plan”. The double helix method sets up new rules for the organization of large-scale think tank modernization research, and provides a comprehensive method and paradigm path for the standardization and scientificity of Chinese path to modernization think tank research in terms of organization, logic, etc. , but the ability to deal with rapid response and uncertainty needs to be further improved in the future.