| 摘要 | 现代化研究分为理论现代化研究和智库现代化研究。理论现代化研究已形成相对成熟的方法体系, 但智库现代化研究范式仍呈现经验性、零散性和随机性特点, 难以应对现代化研究综合性、复杂性等挑战, 亟需新范式。基于此, 本研究以双螺旋法理论为基本底层逻辑, 运用过程融合法 (DIIS) 和逻辑层次法 (MIPS) , 系统架构智库现代化研究体系。通过梳理理论现代化与智库现代化研究进展及相互关系, 剖析传统智库研究范式在现代化研究中的局限。研究发现, 双螺旋法从过程和逻辑两个维度为智库现代化研究提供了新路径。DIIS过程融合法经大数据建构、信息揭示、综合研判、解决方案提出四个环节引导过程性研究; MIPS逻辑层次法基于“机理分析—影响分析—政策分析—形成方案”逻辑框架为决策服务提供全链条政策分析。双螺旋法为大规模智库现代化研究组织方式树立新法则, 为中国式现代化智库研究在组织、逻辑等方面的规范性和科学性提供了综合性方法和范式路径, 但未来还需进一步提升应对快速响应和不确定性问题的能力。 |
| Abstract | Modernization research can generally be divided into theoretical modernization research and think tank modernization research. While theoretical modernization research has developed a relatively mature methodological system, the paradigm of think tank modernization research is still characterized by empirical, fragmented, and random features, lacking a systematic research framework making it difficult to cope with the challenges of comprehensiveness and complexity in modernization research, and urgently requiring a new paradigm. Based on the foundational logic of the Double Helix Method theory, this study employs the DIIS and MIPS research methodologies to systematically construct a think tank modernization research framework. Research has found that the double helix method provides a new path for modernizing think tanks from both process and logic dimensions. The DIIS process fusion method guides process research through four stages: big data construction, information disclosure, comprehensive analysis, and solution proposal; The MIPS logical hierarchy process provides full chain policy analysis for decision-making services based on the logical framework of “mechanism analysis—impact analysis—policy analysis—formation plan”. The double helix method sets up new rules for the organization of large-scale think tank modernization research, and provides a comprehensive method and paradigm path for the standardization and scientificity of Chinese path to modernization think tank research in terms of organization, logic, etc. , but the ability to deal with rapid response and uncertainty needs to be further improved in the future. |
| DOI | 10.48014/csdr.20241225002 |
| 文章类型 | 研究性论文 |
| 收稿日期 | 2024-12-25 |
| 接收日期 | 2024-12-31 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-03-28 |
| 关键词 | 智库现代化, 双螺旋理论, 过程融合法, 逻辑层次法 |
| Keywords | Think tank modernization, double helix theory, process fusion method, logical hierarchies method |
| 作者 | 赵西君1, 李扬2, 靳京2,*, 岳启明2 |
| Author | ZHAO Xijun1, LI Yang2, JIN Jing2,*, YUE Qiming2 |
| 所在单位 | 1. 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院, 北京 100190 2. 中国科学院中国现代化研究中心, 北京 100190 |
| Company | 1. Technology Strategy Consulting and Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China 2. China Modernization Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China |
| 浏览量 | 55 |
| 下载量 | 26 |
| 基金项目 | 本项研究得到了国家社会科学基金项目(资助号SYBJ010)的资助 |
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| 引用本文 | 赵西君, 李扬, 靳京, 等. 基于双螺旋法的智库现代化研究范式构建[J]. 中国可持续发展评论, 2025, 4(1): 33-42. |
| Citation | ZHAO Xijun, LI Yang, JIN Jing, et al. Constructing a research paradigm for think tank modernization based on the Double Helix Method[J]. Chinese Sustainable Development Review, 2025, 4(1): 33-42. |