文章以西宁市为例, 在梳理了产业园区建设与城市人口规模扩展的过程的基础上分析了产业园区建设推动城市人口规模和建成区规模扩张的机制, 并以此为理论基础对未来城市人口规模变化进行了预测, 揭示城市向高质量方向发展的趋势。研究发现: (1) 在城市的发展过程中, 产业园区建设往往是城市累积循环发展的初始因素, 产业园区建设带动经济增长, 吸纳劳动力带动人口集聚, 并为城市新区建设提供动力, 是产业园区推动城市发展的第一波; (2) 随着发展水平的提高, 单纯追求经济增长速度的粗放式发展方式向更高质量发展方式转变, 产业园区调整, 产业发展方向重新定位, 带动经济增长率和经济增长的就业弹性系数下降, 在此基础上叠加人口结构变化引起的劳动力带眷系数变动, 从而导致城市人口增长和城市建设用地规模扩张下降, 进入城市内部用地优化调整的阶段, 并伴随着城市基础设施的完善和城市人均道路面积、人均绿地面积的逐步提高, 城市进入集约化发展的第二波; (3) 根据预测, 未来城市人口将步入平稳增长阶段, 由规模扩张 向高质量集约化发展方式转变。在不同的城市增长“初始因素”或者导致发展变化的主导因素有可能不尽相同, 但是理解过程和机制, 认识所研究的城市的发展规律应该是进行城市规模预测的前提。

Taking Xining City as an example, this article analyzes the mechanism by which industrial park construction promotes the expansion of urban population and built-up areas based on the process of industrial park construction and urban population expansion. Using this as a theoretical basis, it predicts the future changes in urban population size and reveals the trend of urban development towards high-quality direction. Research has found that: (1) In the process of urban development, the construction of industrial parks is often the initial factor for the cumulative and circular development of cities. The construction of industrial parks drives economic growth, absorbs labor, drives population agglomeration, and provides impetus for the construction of new urban areas. It is the first wave of industrial parks driving urban development; ( 2) With the improvement of development level, the extensive development mode that solely pursues economic growth rate is transforming into a higher quality development mode. Industrial parks are adjusted, the direction of industrial development is repositioned, and the employment elasticity coefficient that drives economic growth rate and economic growth is reduced. On this basis, the changes in labor force coupling coefficient caused by population structure are superimposed, resulting in a decrease in urban population growth and expansion of urban construction land scale, entering the stage of optimizing and adjusting urban land use. With the improvement of urban infrastructure and the gradual increase of per capita road area and per capita green space area, cities have entered the second wave of intensive development. (3) According to predictions, the future urban population will enter a stage of steady growth, shifting from scale expansion to high-quality intensive development. The initial factors of growth or the dominant factors leading to development changes may vary in different cities, but understanding the process and mechanism, and recognizing the development laws of the studied city, should be a prerequisite for predicting the size of the city.