基于交通拥堵模型的智慧高速动态管控策略研究

Research on Intelligent High Speed Dynamic Control Strategy Based on Traffic Congestion Model

随着智能化技术的发展, 如何有效应对复杂的交通场景, 尤其是突发事件和高流量下的交通拥堵, 成为了智慧高速建设中亟待解决的关键问题。本文针对高速公路交通拥堵问题, 提出了一种基于交通拥堵模型的动态管控策略。首先, 构建了基于拥堵指数的评估模型, 通过优化权重系数提高评估精度; 其次, 利用SARIMA模型预测常发性拥堵, 提前识别拥堵时刻及区域并采取预防措施; 针对偶发性拥堵, 设计了结合数据融合与事件分析的快速响应算法, 以应对事故、施工及天气等突发事件。基于上述方法, 建立了动态管控策略分析框架, 能够实时调整管控措施, 实现精准、高效的拥堵治理。通过高速扩建项目试验段的应用, 验证了策略的有效性, 为智慧高速公路的智能化管控提供了理论依据与技术支撑。

With the development of intelligent technology, how to effectively deal with complex traffic scenarios, especially emergencies and traffic congestion under high traffic flow, has become a key problem to be solved in the construction of intelligent high-speed. Aiming at the problem of highway traffic congestion, this paper proposes a dynamic control strategy based on traffic congestion model. Firstly, the evaluation model based on congestion index is constructed, and the evaluation accuracy is improved by optimizing the weight coefficient; Secondly, SARIMA model is used to predict frequent congestion, identify congestion time and area in advance and take preventive measures; For accidental congestion, a fast response algorithm combining data fusion and event analysis is designed to deal with accidents, construction, weather and other emergencies. Based on the above methods, a dynamic management and control strategy analysis framework is established, which can adjust the management and control measures in real time to achieve accurate and efficient congestion control. Through the application of the test section of the high-speed expansion project, the effectiveness of the strategy is verified, which provides a theoretical basis and technical support for the intelligent management and control of the smart highway.