2024年6月20日 星期四
《Global Drought and Flood: Monitoring,Prediction,and Adaptation》书评
Book Review of Global Drought and Flood: Monitoring,Prediction,and Adaptation
摘要

《Global Drought and Flood: Monitoring, Prediction, and Adaptation》是介绍面向旱涝问题所构建的物理模型与遥感模型的最新进展的美国地球物理学会专著 (由Wiley出版) 。全文包括3个部分共18章, 这3部分分别介绍了全球旱涝遥感监测; 全球旱涝的建模与预测; 全球旱涝风险评估、管理以及社会经济的应对。目前的遥感观测研究表明气候数据记录的合并可以产生更长的记录, 适用于干旱评估和监测, 同时一些变量如雪和相对湿度, 可以被整合到干旱监测模型中, 分别用于改进干旱的起始的监测和预估。但是卫星传感器的变化也为干旱建模引入了大量无法量化的不确定性, 解决这个问题的理想方法是在原始观测的基础上提供不确定性边界。这种不确定性以及基于模型的模拟产生的结构和参数不确定性可以合并在一起, 以帮助运营应用中的决策制定。该著作不仅阐述了国际上主流的模型、方法、技术以及产品等在实际中的应用, 同时也为洪涝灾害的预测进行了规划与部署。本书的旱涝建模与遥感方法可供全球范围内的应急组织和决策者参考和使用。

Abstract

Global Drought and Flood: Monitoring, Prediction, and Adaptation is an American Geophysical Union monograph (published by Wiley) that introduces the latest advancements in physical and remote sensing models developed for drought and flood issues. The book consists of 18 chapters in 3 parts, which introduce global remote sensing monitoring of droughts and floods, modeling and prediction of global drought and flood, as well as risk assessment, management, and socioeconomic responses to global drought and flood. Current remote sensing observation research suggests that merging climate data can generate longer records suitable for drought assessment and monitoring, while some variables such as snow and relative humidity can be integrated into drought monitoring models to improve the monitoring and estimation of drought initiation, respectively. However, changes in satellite sensors also introduce considerable unquantifiable uncertainty to drought modeling. An ideal approach to this issue is to provide uncertainty boundaries based on top of the original observations. This uncertainty and the structural and parameter uncertainties generated by model-based simulations can be combined to assist decision-making in operational applications. The monograph not only elaborates on the dominant models, methods, techniques, and products used in practical applications internationally but also provides planning and deployment for flood disaster prediction. The drought and flood modeling and remote sensing methods presented in this book can be used for reference and use by global emergency organizations and decision-makers.  

DOI10.48014/fcws.20230802001
文章类型书评
收稿日期2023-08-02
接收日期2023-09-04
出版日期2024-03-28
关键词干旱, 洪涝, 建模, 遥感, 预测
KeywordsDrought, flood, modeling, remote sensing, prediction
作者孙清泉
AuthorSUN Qingquan
所在单位中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101
CompanyInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
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下载量69
参考文献[1] Raei E, Nikoo M R, AghaKouchak A, et al. GHWR, a multi-method global heatwave and warm-spell record and toolbox[J]. Nature Scientific Data, 2018, 5: 180206.
https:/doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.206
[2] Mladenova I E, Bolten J D, Crow W T, et al. Evaluating the operational application of SMAP for global agricultural drought monitoring[J]. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, 2019, 12(9): 3387-3397.
https:/doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2019.2923555
引用本文孙清泉. 《Global Drought and Flood: Monitoring, Prediction, and Adaptation》书评[J]. 中国水科学前沿, 2024, 2(1): 1-3.
CitationSUN Qingquan. Book review of Global Drought and Flood: Monitoring, Prediction, and Adaptation[J]. Frontiers of Chinese Water Sciences, 2024, 2(1): 1-3.