本文在新发展格局背景下基于时间序列分析理论, 以广西壮族自治区2000年至2020年GDP为研究对象, 借助R软件, 对该历史数据进行分析拟合, 建立了时间序列疏系数模型ARIMA ( (2) , 2, 0) 来拟合描述广西壮族自治区GDP, 并利用该模型对广西壮族自治区未来两年2021年和2022年的GDP进行预测研究; 另一方面随着时间的推移相续得到2021年和2022年广西壮族自治区GDP数据, 本文使用修正预测的方法预测广西壮族自治区2023年的GDP, 该修正预测法不需要把新增的数据和原来的数据重新建立拟合模型, 只利用新数据带来的新信息对原有模型旧的预测值进行修正从而得到预测精度更高的新的预测值。通过预测出来的GDP未来趋势为广西壮族自治区在新发展格局背景下未来提升发展的宏观调控和战略部署从数量上提供支持和理论参考。

Against the backdrop of the new development pattern, this study employs time series analysis theory to investigate the GDP data of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from 2000 to 2020. Utilizing R software, the historical data is analyzed and fitted, establishing a sparse coefficient time series model ARIMA ( ( 2) , 2, 0) to describe Guangxi' s GDP. This model is subsequently applied to forecast Guangxi' s GDP for 2021 and 2022. Furthermore, as actual GDP data for 2021 and 2022 become available over time, the study adopts a revised forecasting approach to predicting the GDP for 2023. This approach leverages the new information from the additional data to refine the previous forecast values derived from the original model, thereby generating more accurate updated forecasts without the need to re-estimate the model with the full expanded dataset. The forecasted GDP trends provide quantitative support and theoretical references for macroeconomic regulation and strategic planning in Guangxi under the new development pattern.