《伯努利谬误: 不合逻辑的统计学与现代科学的危机》系美国数学家奥布里·克莱顿于2021年所著之书籍。克莱顿于书中提出颇为犀利之观点: 当下科学界广泛运用的频率主义统计学, 在逻辑层面存在根本缺陷, 即将抽样概率与统计推断相混淆, 致使诸多研究结论缺乏坚实依据。他回溯了概率论的发展历程, 并结合当代科学中的实际案例加以对照分析, 最终主张科学界应重拾贝叶斯推理框架, 以应对当前的可重复性危机。该书不仅对主流统计学范式发起挑战, 还促使人们重新审视科学证据的理解方式。 

Bernoulli’s Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science is a book written by American mathematician Aubrey Clayton in 2021. Clayton puts forward a rather sharp argument in the book: the frequentist statistics widely used in the current scientific community have a fundamental logical flaw, namely, confusing sampling probability with statistical inference, which results in many research conclusions lacking solid foundations. He traces the development of probability theory, analyzes it against actual cases in contemporary science, and ultimately advocates that the scientific community should re-embrace the Bayesian inference framework to address the current replication crisis. The book not only challenges the mainstream statistical paradigm but also prompts a re-examination of how scientific evidence is understood.