数字普惠金融对就业的促进效应和替代效应

罗晓茜; LUO Xiaoqian

doi:10.48014/fcss.20241110002

数字普惠金融对就业的促进效应和替代效应

The Promotion Effect and Substitution Effect of Digital Financial Inclusion on Employment

中国社会科学前沿 2025年第2卷第1期页码[8-20] 下载全文[2.8MB]

摘要

当前, 全球就业市场面临严峻挑战, 失业率居高不下, 就业难成为普遍现象。然而, 数字普惠金融技术为就业问题提供了新的解决办法。通过数字技术, 普惠金融得以更广泛地覆盖, 不仅金融服务得以创新, 创业者还因此得到了更多资金支持。数字普惠金融的发展不仅推动了新兴行业的崛起, 还为解决就业难问题提供了重要途径, 为劳动力市场注入了新的活力。本篇文章采用了北京大学数字金融研究中心提供的2011-2016年期间的数字普惠金融的相关数据进行分析研究, 以及中国31个省级行政区的面板数据, 运用固定效应模型, 将数字金融分为数字金融总指数、覆盖广度、使用深度和支付指数, 对数字金融对就业的促进效应和替代效应进行地区异质性分析以及滞后效应分析, 发现东部发达地区较中西部欠发达地区数字金融的替代效应更弱; 数字金融由于其普惠性的特质对中西部欠发达地区的促进效应更强; 数字金融短期对就业会产生负影响, 替代效应大于促进效应, 但长期来看就会转变成正向影响, 促进效应大于替代效应。

Abstract

Currently, the global job market is facing severe challenges with high unemployment rates and widespread difficulties in finding employment. However, digital financial inclusion technology provides new solutions for employment issues. Through digital technology, inclusive finance can be more widely covered, not only innovating financial services, but also providing entrepreneurs with more financial support. The development of digital financial inclusion not only promotes the rise of emerging industries, but also provides an important way to solve the problem of employment difficulties and injects new vitality into the labor market. In this paper, digital finance is divided into total digital finance index, coverage width, depth of use and payment index by using the digital inclusive finance data of The Digital Finance Research Center of Peking University from 2011 to 2016and panel data of 31 provincial administrative regions in China, using the fixed effect model. The regional heterogeneity analysis and lag effect analysis of the promotion and substitution effect of digital finance on employment show that the substitution effect of digital finance is weaker in the developed eastern region than in the less developed central and western regions. Digital finance has a stronger promotion effect on the less developed areas in central and western China because of its universality. Digital finance will have a negative effect on employment in the short term, and the substitution effect is greater than the promotion effect, but in the long term, it will turn into a positive effect, and the promotion effect is greater than the substitution effect.

DOI

10.48014/fcss.20241110002

文章类型

研究性论文

收稿日期

2024-11-10

接收日期

2024-12-31

出版日期

2025-03-28

关键词

数字金融, 就业水平, 促进效应和替代效应, 地区异质性, 滞后效应

Keywords

Digital finance, employment level, promoting effect and substitution effect, regional heterogeneity, lag effect

作者

罗晓茜

Author

LUO Xiaoqian

所在单位

中共四川省委党校, 成都 610000

Company

CPC Sichuan Provincial Party School, Sichuan, Chengdu 610000, China

浏览量

158

下载量

123

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引用本文

罗晓茜. 数字普惠金融对就业的促进效应和替代效应[J]. 中国社会科学前沿, 2025, 2(1): 8-20.

Citation

LUO Xiaoqian. The promotion effect and substitution effect of digital financial inclusion on employment[J]. Frontiers of Chinese Social Sciences, 2025, 2(1): 8-20.