金融市场本质上是信息驱动的定价系统, 资产价格与风险评估遵循信息有效性原则进行动态调整。本文探讨了网络舆情对金融资产信用风险的影响。通过回顾现有文献, 分析了新闻和社交媒体情绪与债券收益率、信用评级和违约概率等信用风险指标之间的关系。我们发现, 社交媒体情绪在预测股票回报方面具有优势。信用评级机构也开始将舆情影响的声誉风险纳入评估。本文发现了舆情数据对信用风险评估的潜力, 同时分析了舆情对信用风险的影响机制和传播途径, 最后还探索了可行的实证方法来将舆情影响因子嵌入当前的信用风险定价模型, 包括结构化模型和简化式模型的方式。

The financial market is essentially an information driven pricing system, and asset prices and risk assessments are dynamically adjusted according to the principle of information effectiveness. This paper explores the impact of online public sentiment on the credit risk of financial assets. By reviewing existing literature, we analyze the relationship between news and social media sentiment and credit risk indicators such as bond yields, credit ratings, and default probabilities. The study finds that social media sentiment has advantages in predicting stock returns. Credit rating agencies have also begun to incorporate sentimentinfluenced reputation risk into their assessments. This article discovers the potential of public opinion data for credit risk assessment, and analyzes the impact mechanism and dissemination channels of public opinion on credit risk Finally, feasible empirical methods were also explored to embed public opinion impact factors into current credit risk pricing models, including structured and simplified models.